Risk Modeling and Analysis Shortcourse

Risk Modeling and Analysis

Instructor: Dr. C. Ariel Pinto, Old Dominion University  

August 23-26, 2016

National Institute of Aerospace

100 Exploration Way, Hampton, VA 23666



If you are interested in attending this course please contact Mary Catherine Bunde at or by calling (757) 325-6731.

Course Overview:

The Unmanned Traffic Management (UTM) sub-Project under the Safe Autonomous System Operations (SASO) Project is involved in developing a traffic management system designed to accommodate small unmanned aircraft systems (sUAS) operating at or below 500 feet AGL. The UTM Safety and Risk Focus Area, led by Dr. Christine Belcastro, is tasked with developing a methodology for assessing UTM safety risk and constructing a safety case for UTM operations. The objectives of the work include providing safety assessments and technical support for UTM capability demonstrations as well as identification of current and future safety hazards associated with such operations. One of the desirable outputs of the UTM Safety and Risk Focus area would be a framework capable of real-time risk assessment using a combination of mishap, aircraft, and flight dynamics models. In order to ensure the NASA team is equipped with a solid risk knowledge foundation and state-of-the-art risk modeling and analysis techniques, this short course (3-4 days) covering risk literature as well as customized UTM case studies within UTM context is proposed. Areas envisioned for review include, but are not limited to, various risk model types, uncertainty quantification and analysis, risk analysis methods, Bayesian belief networks, Markov chains and other approaches with a focus on real-time applications in data-limited environments.

Cost of Course:

The course is being offered via the Old Dominion University College of Continuing Education. CEU’s should be available for course completion. A limited number of NASA attendees will have their course fees covered. Non-NASA attendees should contact Mary Catherine Bunde for further information at or (757) 325-6731.

Who Should Attend:

Course is open to NASA and non-NASA faculty, research staff or graduate students

Course Outline:

  • Deterministic risk models
  • Stochastic risk models,
  • Uncertainty analysis
    • Case-based studies, aka workshop (if we can determine models that are suitable for context ahead of the course)
  • Risk Analysis Methods
  • Bayesian belief networks
  • Markov chains
  • Petri-net models
  • Cause-and-consequence (aka bow-tie) analysis
    • Fault-tree analysis
    • Event-tree analysis
  • o   Extreme Event Theory (EVT)
  • o   Rare event regression
    • Linear regression
    • Poison regression
    • Negative binomial regression
    • Zero-inflated Poisson/negative binomial regression
  • o Data analysis
    • Expert evidence analysis (aka subject matter experts)
    • Monte Carlo simulations
  • Real-Time Risk Assessment Methods


Daily Format:

Start time: 8:30am

Break: 10:00am

Lunch: 12:00pm -1:30pm

Break: 3:00pm

End time: 4:30pm


Dr. Pinto develops and teaches risk-related courses at the Department of Engineering Management and Systems Engineering at Old Dominion University.  Previously, he was a research fellow at the Software Industry Center at Carnegie Mellon University and also at the Center for Risk Management of Engineering Systems at the University of Virginia.  His research interests are in the areas of risk management in engineered systems, including project risk management, risk valuation, risk communication, analysis of extreme-and-rare events, and decision-making under uncertainty.

Recommended Hotel:

Courtyard Marriott-Hampton, 1917 Coliseum Drive, Hampton, VA 23666 Ph: (757) 838-3300.

Recommended Airports:

Norfolk (ORF), Newport News (PHF) or Richmond (RIC)



100 Exploration Way
Hampton, VA 23666