Ersin Ancel

Ersin AncelTel: +1 (757) 864-6082; +1 (757) 864-63226


Research Interest

  • Systems Modeling and Systems Integration
  • Reliability and Risk Analysis
  • Human factors and socio-technical systems


  • Ph.D., (2011) Engineering Management & Systems Engineering, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA
  • M.S. (2007), Aerospace Engineering, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA
  • B.S. (2005), Aerospace Engineering, Istanbul Technical University, Turkey

Current Research

Aviation Safety Analysis Team (ASAT) – System Integration Models – Loss of Control

The goal of this project is to develop an integrated platform to evaluate various technologies developed by Aviation Safety Program (AvSP) under NASA’s Aeronautics Portfolio. AvSP’s goal is to support the aviation community with identification of current and future safety risks as well as developing technologies, tools, and methods to improve overall aircraft safety operating in Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen). AvSP contains three projects to address aviation hazards; System-Wide Safety and Assurance Technologies (SSAT), Vehicle Systems Safety Technologies VSST), and Atmospheric Environment Safety Technologies (AEST). As a part of the Aviation Safety Analysis Team’s (ASAT) milestone, the goal of this project is to provide critical evaluations of emerging aviation safety needs, and to generate system level integrated models capable of promoting internal collaboration of safety research. The system-level models enable the integration of the products developed under the AvSP projects and examine their effects on future safety risks.

Loss of control (LOC) accidents were identified as one of the leading causes of aviation fatalities. The initial modeling effort is focused on determining the causality of these accidents and developing a generalized LOC accident model which represents the historical risks as well as safety concerns anticipated in the future. The first iteration of the LOC accident framework (LOCAF) model outlines the high level causal factors and contributors leading to an accident within the current National Airspace System (NAS). The AvSP safety technology products are inserted to and evaluated based on their contributions in preventing the accident. The modeling engine for the LOCAF is based on a COTS Bayesian-Belief-Network software. The model uses Subject Matter Expert (SME) opinions as well as external organization’s opinions for validation.  The second LOCAF iteration will include elements from the NextGen environment that may potentially promote other modes of safety concerns. The areas of concerns include mixed fleet equipage, increased automation, increased traffic/decreased separation standards, etc. The next phases of this research will focus on the modeling of other future safety concerns including human fatigue, reliance in increased automation, super density operations, etc. (Technical monitor: Dr. Sharon M. Jones, NASA LaRC).


Papers submitted to

  • International Society of Air Safety Investigators (ISASI) 43rd Annual Seminar 2012
  • 12th AIAA Aviation Technology, Integration and Operations (ATIO) Conference, 2012
  • American Society for Engineering Management (ASEM) 2012 International Annual Conference (x2)




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Hampton, VA 23666