|
|
 |
|
Resit Unal with Old Dominion University |
|
Date: August 11, 2004
Time: 10:30am
Location: NIA, Rm 404
Speaker: Resit Unal with Old Dominion University
Subject: * "An Expert Judgement Elicitation Methodology for Quantifying Uncertainty, and MDO Using Dual Response Surfaces for Reducing Design Risk"
Conceptual design of future space transportation systems is a multidisciplinary process containing considerable element of risk. Uncertainties from one discipline and/or subsystem may propagate to another through linking parameters leading to significant deviations from the expected performance. A primary problem is the lack of historical data to quantify input parameter uncertainty.
First, an expert-judgment elicitation methodology to quantify input parameter uncertainty in conceptual launch vehicle design is presented. The ten-phase methodology seeks to obtain expert judgment opinion for quantifying uncertainties as a probability distribution so that multidisciplinary risk analysis studies can be performed. The calibration and aggregation techniques presented as part of the methodology are aimed at improving individual expert estimates, and provide an approach to aggregate multiple expert judgments into a single probability distribution. An application exercise is presented.
Second, use of dual responses is investigated to estimate variability resulting from uncertain values of several design parameters and conduct multidisciplinary optimization considering both the mean response and variance to reduce design risk. The dual response surface approach is applied to the conceptual design of a wing-body vehicle, configuration study.
|
|
|
Home