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Elisabeth Pate-Cornell with Standford University |
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Date: August 15, 2003
Time: 9:30am
Speaker: Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Burton J. and Anne M. McMurty Professor and Chair Management Science and Engineering, Stanford University
Subject: "On Signals, Response and Risk Mitigation: A Probabilistic Approach to Precursors' Detection and Analysis"
Most technological failures of critical systems are preceded by events that constitute warnings that the system has deteriorated, that some flaws exist, that the loads on the system is going to be higher than expected or that an accident or an attack is going to happen in the near future. Examples include the two space shuttle accidents, the case of the Concord, and of the intelligence information that needs to be collected and interpreted in time to prevent terrorist attacks. I will present a few examples of such situations and a method based on systems analysis and probability that allows identifying precursors and filtering the information. Finally, I will discuss the management and communication issues that must be resolved in order to construct a viable organizational warning system.
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