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Systems Analysis Seminar by Paul Garvey |
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Date: May 2, 2006
Time: 2:00pm
Location: NASA LaRC, Bldg 1209, Rm 180
Additional Information: Bio | Presentation (PDF)
An Introduction to Cost Risk Analysis
Paul R. Garvey, MITRE
Cost is a driving consideration in decisions that determine how a high-technology system is developed, produced, and sustained. Critical to these decisions is quantifying how technological and economic risks may affect a system’s cost. This lecture provides an introduction on how probability methods are applied to model, measure, and manage risk in the cost of engineering today’s advanced systems. The course material is developed from the book Probability Methods for Cost Uncertainty Analysis – A Systems Engineering Perspective.
Throughout the lecture, detailed discussions on technical issues associated with cost uncertainty analysis are given. This includes the treatment of correlation between the cost of various system elements, how to present the analysis to decision-makers, and the use of bivariate probability distributions to capture the joint interactions between cost and schedule. Analytical techniques from probability theory are stressed, along with the Monte Carlo simulation method.
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